The New Hampshire Primary results are in and in all honesty, played out as I expected, at least when it comes to the winner.
The results of the primary went like this:
Mitt Romney: 39.4%
Ron Paul: 22.8%
Jon Huntsman: 16.8%
Newt Gingrich: 9.4%
Rick Santorum: 9.4%
Rick Perry: .7%
With the exception of Paul finishing in second instead of Hunstman, my prediction was pretty close. I thought Gingrich would finish behind Santorum but obviously the two tied percentage-wise.
Romney right now has full control of the Republican Primary and Ron Paul, Jon Hunstman, and Rick Santorum have a good chance to challenge him, but only if the field diminishes. Otherwise, Romney will run away with party nomination.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Iowa Caucus
I am pleased to see that my prediction for Iowa was almost spot on, with only fifth and sixth places swapping in reality. The vote results were quite exciting to watch unfold and the fact that Romney won Iowa by only 8 votes is ridiculous. I am hoping that New Hampshire is as exciting.
Here are the results of last night:
Romney- 24.6%
Santorum- 24.5%
Paul- 21.4%
Gingrich- 13.3%
Perry- 10.3%
Bachmann- 5%
Hunstman- .6%
Others- .3%
Here are the results of last night:
Romney- 24.6%
Santorum- 24.5%
Paul- 21.4%
Gingrich- 13.3%
Perry- 10.3%
Bachmann- 5%
Hunstman- .6%
Others- .3%
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Predictions For Iowa and New Hampshire
From the information I've gathered, I've decided to make a prediction for both the upcoming Iowa caucuses (Jan 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 10) along with my reasoning for each.
Iowa Caucus Prediction
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Rick Santorum
3rd: Ron Paul
4th: Newt Gingrich
5th: Michelle Bachmann
6th: Rick Perry
Reasoning: Looking at recent trends and how much time candidates are spending in Iowa, I feel Santorum is going to establish himself in Iowa. Perry is sinking fast and I think he will have a poor showing.
New Hampshire Primary Prediction
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Jon Huntsman
3rd: Ron Paul
4th: Rick Santorum
5th: Newt Gingrich
6th: Michelle Bachmann
7th: Rick Perry
Reasoning: Hunstman has put the bulk of his effort in gaining New Hampshire but Romney has a stranglehold in New England and I don’t see him finishing out of first here either. The next three really could go either way but I feel Paul might have Santorum and Gingrich edged out in New Hampshire.
Iowa Caucus Prediction
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Rick Santorum
3rd: Ron Paul
4th: Newt Gingrich
5th: Michelle Bachmann
6th: Rick Perry
Reasoning: Looking at recent trends and how much time candidates are spending in Iowa, I feel Santorum is going to establish himself in Iowa. Perry is sinking fast and I think he will have a poor showing.
New Hampshire Primary Prediction
1st: Mitt Romney
2nd: Jon Huntsman
3rd: Ron Paul
4th: Rick Santorum
5th: Newt Gingrich
6th: Michelle Bachmann
7th: Rick Perry
Reasoning: Hunstman has put the bulk of his effort in gaining New Hampshire but Romney has a stranglehold in New England and I don’t see him finishing out of first here either. The next three really could go either way but I feel Paul might have Santorum and Gingrich edged out in New Hampshire.
Thoughts on the Republican Party Candidates
Here are my thoughts on the Republican Party candidates that are still in the field along with any new info I've gleaned lately.
Mitt Romney
He is the clear frontrunner in the Republican Primary, and I still feel he will get the nomination barring a gaffe of monstrous proportions. While many feel he is too wishy-washy, he has the confidence and the financial backing that will win him many votes.
Newt Gingrich
I think he has a great shot at being Romney’s challenger. He is finally sticking to his guns and I think his intelligence and knowledge of politics can really propel him and win him a great amount of votes. Of course, if he can’t keep his mouth shut and stop offending people, he’ll quickly see himself out of the race.
Jon Hunstman
I do not know much about him still at this point, as he has been in the shadows for the most part. I do expect him to take New Hampshire by storm and finish second there with all the time he’s spent in the last month or so.
Ron Paul
As E.J. Dionne said the other day, Paul “will never be nominated”. I agree with that statement but he has a great chance in Iowa at this point in time. All Paul can really do is whittle down the challengers that Romney is facing, since it is unlikely that Paul can do well enough against Obama to get elected.
Major Bills Voted For In Obama Administration: HR 4437- Toughen border security/come down on illegal immigration, Repealing DADT, Banning waterboarding and other inhumane treatment of detainees, Extending Bush tax cuts, Repeal health-care reform.
Major Bills Voted Against In Obama Administration: HR 6- Offering tax breaks on oil and gas companies, Extending provisions of Patriot Act, all 3 debt-reduction bills to come across in the last few months, Repealing restrictions on federal spending on embryonic stem cell research, Establishing a free trade zone between US and Central American countries.
Michelle Bachmann
I honestly think she has no chance to be nominated as she is too conservative to win a general election. Her poll numbers lately are showing that my view is not too far off as well.
Major Bills Voted For In Obama Administration: Repeal health-care reform, Extending provisions of Patriot Act, GOP 2012 Budget Plan, Balanced Budget Amendment to Constitution.
Major Bills Voted Against In Obama Administration: Extending Bush tax cuts, Repeal DADT, Boehner debt reduction bill, Vote 690-Final debt deal.
Rick Perry
He has not done anything to fix his slide in the polls and I firmly believe that after the New Hampshire Primary he will be out of the primary race.
Rick Santorum
As of right now, he has a great chance to surprise in Iowa and I predict a top 3 finish with finishing first a real possibility. Today on Meet the Press, he made a point of saying he will definitely compromise to move the country forward as long as he does not compromise his principles. That is, in my opinion, a very honorable way of trying to accomplish his goals. However, today he made a pointed remark about Obama and people from Chicago and I feel that Illinois will not have any love for him now.
Mitt Romney
He is the clear frontrunner in the Republican Primary, and I still feel he will get the nomination barring a gaffe of monstrous proportions. While many feel he is too wishy-washy, he has the confidence and the financial backing that will win him many votes.
Newt Gingrich
I think he has a great shot at being Romney’s challenger. He is finally sticking to his guns and I think his intelligence and knowledge of politics can really propel him and win him a great amount of votes. Of course, if he can’t keep his mouth shut and stop offending people, he’ll quickly see himself out of the race.
Jon Hunstman
I do not know much about him still at this point, as he has been in the shadows for the most part. I do expect him to take New Hampshire by storm and finish second there with all the time he’s spent in the last month or so.
Ron Paul
As E.J. Dionne said the other day, Paul “will never be nominated”. I agree with that statement but he has a great chance in Iowa at this point in time. All Paul can really do is whittle down the challengers that Romney is facing, since it is unlikely that Paul can do well enough against Obama to get elected.
Major Bills Voted For In Obama Administration: HR 4437- Toughen border security/come down on illegal immigration, Repealing DADT, Banning waterboarding and other inhumane treatment of detainees, Extending Bush tax cuts, Repeal health-care reform.
Major Bills Voted Against In Obama Administration: HR 6- Offering tax breaks on oil and gas companies, Extending provisions of Patriot Act, all 3 debt-reduction bills to come across in the last few months, Repealing restrictions on federal spending on embryonic stem cell research, Establishing a free trade zone between US and Central American countries.
Michelle Bachmann
I honestly think she has no chance to be nominated as she is too conservative to win a general election. Her poll numbers lately are showing that my view is not too far off as well.
Major Bills Voted For In Obama Administration: Repeal health-care reform, Extending provisions of Patriot Act, GOP 2012 Budget Plan, Balanced Budget Amendment to Constitution.
Major Bills Voted Against In Obama Administration: Extending Bush tax cuts, Repeal DADT, Boehner debt reduction bill, Vote 690-Final debt deal.
Rick Perry
He has not done anything to fix his slide in the polls and I firmly believe that after the New Hampshire Primary he will be out of the primary race.
Rick Santorum
As of right now, he has a great chance to surprise in Iowa and I predict a top 3 finish with finishing first a real possibility. Today on Meet the Press, he made a point of saying he will definitely compromise to move the country forward as long as he does not compromise his principles. That is, in my opinion, a very honorable way of trying to accomplish his goals. However, today he made a pointed remark about Obama and people from Chicago and I feel that Illinois will not have any love for him now.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)